Commodities Weekly Analysis(Oct 10)

Commodities Weekly Analysis(Oct 10)

Gold Weekly Technical Analysis

Highlight: 1675-1680 level is the key for the gold’s next short-term direction.

Gold failed to hold below the 1675-1680 long-term support level. The price rallied last week to retest the 50-day SMA, just short of the falling trend line that started from the June high.

RSI has hit near the overbought area. Reaching near overbought in a downtrend is a typical sell signal.

The recent bullish rally could be a mere correction within a longer-term bearish trend. Yet, retreating back above the 1680 major level is a bit worrisome for the bulls.

Having that in mind, it’s a good idea to watch 1675-1680 for potential signs of a bullish reversal, such as a reversal candlestick. Targeting a retest of the main falling trend line and 1730 area.

On the other hand, if the price fails to hold above 1675, more downside would be likely towards 1640, and the most recent main swing low at 1615.

Oil Weekly Technical Analysis

Highlight: Mixed signals. Watch 93.50 to the upside and 90.17-90.37 to the downside.

Oil daily chart  2022-10-10
Oil daily chart 2022-10-10

The recent bullish bounce has brought the price back above the 50-day SMA and 90.37 swing-high and resistance level.

Some damage to the downtrend has happened after the break of the 90.37 swing-high. However, the price is testing a notable resistance level at 93.50, which may halt the upside in the near term, and push the price to retest the 90.37-90.17 area.

90.37-90.17 is the short-term support to monitor. A break below it may extend the downside towards 86.00.

Silver Weekly Technical Analysis

Highlight: Sideways trend likely to continue. Looking for a retest of the range support.

Silver daily chart 2022-10-10
Silver daily chart 2022-10-10

Silver’s breakout above 20.85 was a false breakout. The price retreated to hold below that level and currently retesting the 20.00 support area.

The first retest of the 20.00 level was rejected sharply last Wednesday. Note the long lower shadow candlestick. Hence, if the price can hold below that 20.00 level we could see more downside.

It’s clear that the price has been trading in a sideways range for almost three months. And RSI hit the overbought area in the context of a sideways trend. This is a typical sell technical signal.

Therefore, the bottom of the range is the obvious target for the bearish scenario. That starts at 18.15.

Lu'ay Af.
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Lu'ay Af.
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